Why think that electric vehicles will have a weekly level of consolidation

Updated: Jan 25

From:cain/2021-1-16



First of all, we must admit that the revenue and profit of electric vehicles alone cannot support such a high market value.


What is the reason for their high market value?


In the long term, it is optimistic that electric vehicles will replace traditional cars in the next 5 or 10 years.


In the short-term, it is a technological breakthrough time and time again, sales growth, policy support. The incremental funds and speculators brought by the increase in stock prices.


Then why do I say that there will be weekly consolidation?


First of all, from a long-term perspective, the target time period is 5 years, 10 years, and 20 years. Weekly consolidation will not affect the general trend nor will it affect firm investors.


From a short-term perspective, I will discuss three directions that affect short-term investors separately.


1. In the big aspect, we have to see clearly that the market for electric vehicles is the Chinese mainland market. These are all Chinese companies. So our current time point is the time when the New Year has passed and the Spring Festival has not arrived. This time is China The time period for the company to make a summary will immediately face one of the most important long vacations in China.


2. In terms of technological breakthroughs, there will be no new research and development in the short term.


3. In terms of sales growth, first is the winter and then the Spring Festival, which is also the traditional off-season for automobiles. In addition, why almost every month in 20 years, electric vehicles will have sales of more than 100% year-on-year, because 20 years is the first year and 19 years are electric Cars are still a niche product. So in 21 years, with such high sales in 20 years, it is conceivable that it is almost impossible to make more than 100% sales.


Therefore, sales growth in 21 years will not have the same explosive effect on stock prices as in 20 years.


In terms of policy promotion, for the same reason, major policies are basically announced during the March 2 meeting, and 21 years is the first year of the 145 plan in Mainland China, which is particularly important.


So based on the above points, I personally think that electric vehicles will have a weekly level of consolidation, and the overall growth in the next few years will not be as explosive as in 20 years.



personal opinion:


So if it were me, I would ambush in mid-February or at the end of February. If the two sessions in March, the 145 plan has a strong electric vehicle and new energy promotion plan, then it can be profitable.

If the impetus is not as big as imagined, then admit the loss and close the position. Then look at opportunities in the middle of the year.



Investment is risky, as a reference, not as an investment recommendation



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